Truth-Checking Candidates’ Sparring Over Social Safety and Medicare

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High contenders for the 2024 presidential election in latest weeks have accused one another of jeopardizing Social Safety and Medicare, key entitlement applications for seniors.

The way forward for the applications has been fodder for countless political debate — and distortions — due to the long-term monetary challenges they face.

Social Safety’s predominant belief fund is currently projected to be depleted in 2033, which means this system would then be capable of pay solely about three-quarters of complete scheduled advantages. Medicare, for its half, is susceptible to not having sufficient cash to completely pay hospitals by 2031.

President Biden, former President Donald J. Trump, Nikki Haley, the previous governor of South Carolina, and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida are among the many candidates zeroing in on these vulnerabilities, usually by referring to at least one one other’s earlier positions.

Right here’s a fact-check.


“Trump in 2020: We will likely be reducing Social Safety and Medicare”
— Biden marketing campaign in a December social media post that features a clip of Mr. Trump

That is deceptive. The Biden marketing campaign has repeatedly claimed that reducing the applications is one in every of Mr. Trump’s insurance policies. However whereas Mr. Trump has prior to now prompt he may entertain trims to entitlements, he has repeatedly vowed throughout his marketing campaign to guard the applications.

On this case, the Biden marketing campaign shared a brief clip of Mr. Trump throughout a Fox News town hall in March 2020 and ignored his clarification on the time.

The clip exhibits a Fox Information host, Martha MacCallum, telling Mr. Trump, “Should you don’t lower one thing in entitlements, you’ll by no means actually cope with the debt.”

“Oh, we’ll be reducing, however we’re additionally going to have progress such as you’ve by no means had earlier than,” Mr. Trump responded.

The Trump administration instantly walked back his feedback and mentioned he was referring to reducing deficits. “I’ll shield your Social Safety and Medicare, simply as I’ve for the previous 3 years,” Mr. Trump wrote in a post a day later.

Throughout his time in workplace, Mr. Trump did suggest some cuts to Medicare — although specialists mentioned the price reductions would not have significantly affected advantages — and to Social Safety’s applications for folks with disabilities. They weren’t enacted by Congress.

Like different candidates, together with Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump has shifted his positions over time. In a 2000 guide, Mr. Trump suggested, for folks below 40, elevating the age for receiving full Social Safety retirement advantages to 70. Earlier than that, he said he was open to the concept of privatizing this system, even when he didn’t just like the idea. He not advances these positions.

Final January, the previous president said in a video that “by no means ought to Republicans vote to chop a single penny from Medicare or Social Safety.” However he has not outlined a transparent plan for protecting the applications solvent. The Trump marketing campaign didn’t reply to a request for remark.

Mr. Trump suggested last month that the federal government may avert any Social Safety adjustments by increasing drilling in the USA, however specialists say that isn’t possible.

“Dedicating present oil and gasoline leasing revenues to Social Safety would cowl lower than 4 % of its shortfall, and it will be unimaginable to repair Social Safety even when all federal land have been opened to drilling operations,” according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.


“And in contrast to Ron DeSanctimonious, we’ll all the time shield Social Safety and Medicare for our nice seniors. He wished to knock the hell out of Social Safety and Medicare.”
— Mr. Trump during a campaign rally in mid-December

That is deceptive. Whereas in Congress, Mr. DeSantis supported finances frameworks that proposed elevating the total Social Safety retirement age to 70, however leaving the early retirement age the identical. As a presidential candidate, he has mentioned he wouldn’t lower Social Safety for seniors however has at instances expressed openness to adjustments for youthful folks with out specifying what these are.

Presently, employees are eligible for their full benefits at their full retirement age, which varies from 66 to 67 relying on yr of start. However recipients can qualify for decreased advantages as early as age 62.

As a Florida congressman, Mr. DeSantis did vote for Republican budget proposals — which might not have modified the legislation on their very own — that supported steadily elevating the total retirement age for Social Safety to 70. The proposals didn’t name for altering the early retirement age.

The proposals additionally called for changes to Medicare, together with by ultimately rising its retirement age to 67 or 70, from 65, and transitioning this system to “premium help,” by which the federal government would provide funds for seniors to buy varied well being care plans.

Mr. DeSantis has not made clear his plans for Medicare as he runs for president, however he has usually rejected the concept of fixing Social Safety. “We’re not going to mess with Social Safety as Republicans, I feel that that’s fairly clear,” he said in March.

That mentioned, he has signaled openness to adjusting this system for youthful folks. In a July interview on Fox Information, Mr. DeSantis mentioned, “Speaking about making adjustments for folks of their 30s or 40s, in order that this system’s viable, you understand, that’s a a lot totally different factor, and that’s one thing that I feel there’s going to must be discussions on.”

The DeSantis marketing campaign didn’t reply to a request for remark.


“Nikki Haley, she has claimed that the retirement age is means, means, means too low. That’s what she mentioned. So that you’ve obtained lots of people which have labored laborious their complete life. Life expectancy is declining on this nation. It’s tragic, nevertheless it’s true. So to take a look at these demographic developments and say that you’d jack it up in order that individuals are not going to have the ability to have advantages. I imply, I don’t know why she’s saying that.”
— Mr. DeSantis on CNN last month

This wants context. Life expectancy in the USA dropped throughout the coronavirus pandemic, however it’s inching again up. And Ms. Haley has solely referred to as for adjustments to Social Safety for youthful folks — not in contrast to what Mr. DeSantis himself has entertained.

“The way in which we cope with it’s, we don’t contact anybody’s retirement or anybody who’s been promised in, however we go to folks, like my children of their 20s, once they’re coming into the system, and we are saying, ‘The principles have modified,’” Ms. Haley said in an August interview with Bloomberg. “We modify retirement age to mirror life expectancy.”

Ms. Haley didn’t specify what the brand new retirement age must be. “What we do know is 65 is means too low, and we have to enhance that,” she mentioned when pressed. “We have to do it in accordance with life expectancy.”

Ms. Haley additionally referred to as for figuring out profit changes primarily based on inflation, moderately than the present cost-of-living calculation, and limiting advantages for the rich.

On Medicare, Ms. Haley has proposed increasing Medicare Advantage, below which non-public corporations present plans and are paid by the federal government to cowl the beneficiary.

But for 2023, the federal government was projected to spend $27 billion extra for Medicare Benefit plans than if these enrollees have been in conventional Medicare. Consultants be aware that increasing Medicare Benefit whereas attaining total financial savings would require structural adjustments that will be politically difficult to implement.

“It might require a change in cost coverage that will seemingly run into fierce opposition,” mentioned Tricia Neuman, senior vice chairman on the well being nonprofit KFF and govt director for its program on Medicare coverage.

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